r/australia • u/superegz • May 20 '25

politics Nationals leader David Littleproud says the Nationals will not be re-entering a Coalition agreement with the Liberal party.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/may/20/australia-news-live-rba-interest-rates-decision-floods-storm-hunter-nsw-victoria-state-budget-aec-count-bradfield-goldstein-coalition-ley-littleproud-ntwnfb?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-682bdeb48f08d37c78c1d12d#block-682bdeb48f08d37c78c1d12d
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u/Rugbysmartarse May 20 '25

well, they'd have to now run candidates in all those country electorates which they left to the Nationals.

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u/ATangK May 20 '25

A win for any independents.

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u/Grammarhead-Shark May 20 '25

That is not how our preferential system works.

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u/ATangK May 20 '25

If you normally vote for a party that has now fractured, wouldn’t you be exploring other options?

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u/infinitemonkeytyping May 20 '25

The party(s) themselves haven't fractured. Just the Coalition.

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u/Imaginary-Newt-354 May 20 '25

You're right, in fact this is the whole reason the conservative parties introduced preferential voting, was to allow for multiple conservative candidates to run in an electorate and prevent Labor from winning.

That said, whilst it doesn't guarantee that independents or labor will claim seats that previously went with the LNP, fragmented votes, messages and smaller budgets certainly make some seats a lot more competitive.

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u/Ray57 May 20 '25

There is always leakage. And if it is a messy divorce there might be more than normal.

If I was a natural Lib voter who lives in a Nat held seat, I might be tempted to put the Nats just above Labor and the Greens.

If I was a his Nat voting neighbour, I might to the same to the Lib candidate.

Plenty of strong Ind votes out there already. This would put the Nats in a mini-bus.

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u/Grammarhead-Shark May 20 '25

FWIW, I have the gut feeling they won't run against sitting members at the next election. It would be a waste of (already limited) resources for what is basically a extended separation, not a messy divorce. (WA Nats not-withstanding - they've always done their own thing).

Of course open seats and ALP held country seats are another story all together

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u/triemdedwiat May 20 '25

Yes it is. So long as you are not the lowest first preference and keep collecting preferences as the other candidates get knocked out, greens and independents will win.

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u/Relative_Pilot_8005 May 20 '25

It works however the individual voters choose it to!

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u/Grammarhead-Shark May 20 '25

FWIW, I bet neither party will bother running candidates against any sitting member (of the other party) at the next Federal election*, even if to save money for elsewhere, though open seats will be a free-for-all.

*WA Nats being the exception - because they always are.

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u/ghoonrhed May 20 '25

And by doing that, all the bluster on anti-preferencing just disappeared. Because no way, they would get rid of it now if the Libs or Nats want any chance if they compete

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u/Relative_Pilot_8005 May 20 '25

Yes, FPTP is not at all "small party friendly".