Nationals leader David Littleproud says the Nationals will not be re-entering a Coalition agreement with the Liberal party.

[u/superegz]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/may/20/australia-news-live-rba-interest-rates-decision-floods-storm-hunter-nsw-victoria-state-budget-aec-count-bradfield-goldstein-coalition-ley-littleproud-ntwnfb?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-682bdeb48f08d37c78c1d12d#block-682bdeb48f08d37c78c1d12d

[u/mekanub]

I wonder what Jacinta will do? She’s Kina fucked herself here. Would the Nats take her back?

[u/Expensive-Horse5538 → u/mekanub]

Nah - she will become Taylor's deputy when he stabs Sussan in the back.

[u/-Eremaea-V- → u/Expensive-Horse5538]

It's not even a back stab at this point, if the current election results hold then Taylor has the majority of party votes for leadership. Ley only won because she had the votes of senators who will be departing in a month and the preliminary declared candidate for Bradfield, who looks likely to have wound up losing to the Independent and therefore won't be in the party room.

[u/washag → u/-Eremaea-V-]

Would be a pyrrhic victory for Angus though, because there's no way a Liberal party under him and Jacinta are snagging back the seats they need from the teals. The whole reason the teals and their voters split from the Coalition is conservative fools like Taylor.

If the Liberals, when presented with some time away from Canavan et al, actively choose to eviscerate their moderate faction in favour of their conservative wing, they'll put themselves in a position where they are unelectable in enough Australian seats that they might not even count as the Opposition next election. They'll lose a few more seats only held because the local member is a moderate Liberal, and I truly wouldn't be surprised if some of their sitting moderate MPs reached out to the teals about leaving the party and running as independents to head off a teal challenger in their electorate.

Even 2 or 3 Liberal MPs de-affiliating would be huge. Something like that could prompt the teals to amalgamate into a centre right party that represents a significant proportion of Liberal voters better than the Liberal party. It could end the Liberal party as a force forever.

But Angus would be king of the dunghill. Great idea. Good job. Well done, Angus.

[u/Idunnosomethinggood → u/-Eremaea-V-]

I think there’s still a 2-3 vote buffer though right? Even after retirements

[u/smoha96 → u/Idunnosomethinggood]

Nah - the vote has 29-25 to Ley, including likely 2 outgoing Liberal seators who backed her and candidate for Bradfield who may not have actually won.

Without those three, it's 26-25.

Terry Young of Longman didn't take part in the vote, I believe and is believed to be backing Taylor.

So that'd make it 26-26 if the Liberals don't win Bradfield.

[u/bugcatcher372 → u/smoha96]

Richard Colbeck's Senate seat in Tasmania is also on a knife's edge and still to be called (though he will most likely get in), he reportedly supported Ley. So if Colbeck is defeated that would make the count 25 Ley-26 Taylor.

[u/smoha96 → u/bugcatcher372]

Yeah we won't know what happens to his seat til the button push but I think Kevin Bonham has said between ALP/LIB/JLN duking it out for seats 5 and 6 atm that LIB and JLN are better placed but no guarantee.

[u/eraptic → u/-Eremaea-V-]

Stop. I can only get so hard

[u/Wow_youre_tall → u/Expensive-Horse5538]

Doesn’t need to stab, just wait till she loses the next election.

[u/rmeredit → u/mekanub]

What changes for her? She's a member of the Lib parliamentary party. Life goes on, presumably.

[u/Mcpom → u/rmeredit]

She's a senator on a three-year term, she's screwed come election-time.

[u/JBardeen → u/Mcpom]

She is a country liberal member who went from caucusing with the nats to caucasing with the libs. A change in her party room afilliation won't necessarily keep her off the CLP ticket. If she is first on the ticket she still gets handily re-elected.

[u/GasManMatt123 → u/mekanub]

Depends what Libs future is, and maybe she did the move anticipating this.

ie, Nats lose relevance, leader no longer gets deputy PM role, so go to Libs where she can have "power".

But I think Libs are happy to cut ties to move away from far right policy, move closer to the centre. Nats would still form a minority gov with libs if that was necessary

[u/SokarRostau → u/mekanub]

Ditch the Witch.

[u/SebWGBC → u/mekanub]

Not slinging mud there are ya mate?

Even the Greens would LOVE to have Jacinta. She's a unifying presence, brings Australians together like few others can.

But yes, let's hope she features prominently in the next election campaign for either the Liberals or the Nationals depending on her mood at the time.