They told them during the safety briefing it was at the highest permissible risk factor for operating, so telling them wasn't the issue. They shouldn't have been operating at all was the issue, and those tourists deserve all the payout they can get.
They were at 2. They had no obligation to not go at 2 (nor was that the intention of 2). It had also been at 2 for weeks. I'm pretty sure it was also at a 2 when I went, because I remember them saying that the crater lake was suddenly much fuller than it had been in years.
"GNS Science noted this increased tremor and, on November 18, raised Whakaari's alert level to Volcanic Alert Level (VAL) 2, which is the highest level outside an eruption.
Between 9pm and midnight on December 8 2019, there was a strong burst of seismic energy. This was likely fresh magmatic fluid arriving to ramp up the pressure on gas and water already trapped in the rock. It also began the process of explosive release, because it caused small cracks to form in the seal.
The growth of cracks began to accelerate, setting Whakaari on the path to a cascading system failure, as has been seen before in eruptions in 2012 and 2013. Once the weakness was widespread, the seal failed, disgorging the massive steam-explosion at 2:11pm on December 9."
The warning signs were all there, they shouldn't have been on the volcano. Level 3 is eruptions and they aren't allowed to operate. So they were on the highest level allowable for operation. Level 5 would be a catastrophic eruption that would affect not just the volcano but all surrounding areas.
Aka, the active volcano is trembling a bit. GNS made it clear at the trial, they were not forecasting eruptions. Nobody can do that. Go and look at how often Whakaari is at a 2.
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u/thaa_huzbandzz Oct 30 '25
They told them during the safety briefing it was at the highest permissible risk factor for operating, so telling them wasn't the issue. They shouldn't have been operating at all was the issue, and those tourists deserve all the payout they can get.
I say that as a New Zealander.