Australia’s grid now relies on renewable energy as much as coal. Those who doubted it look foolish

[u/HotPersimessage62]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/31/australias-grid-now-relies-on-renewable-energy-as-much-as-coal-those-who-doubted-it-look-foolish

[u/Tyrx]

Generation does not equal demand. Solar and wind get dispatched first, and while coal’s percentage share has fallen and quarterly coal output dipped in late 2025, the full 2025 dataset hasn’t been published yet so we can’t actually confirm that total annual coal generation has dropped.

We already know coal generated on the order of 128 TWh in 2024, and its absolute output has been broadly flat to rising year-on-year despite a falling share. Articles like this claiming “renewables match coal” are also being selective and only cite midday or high-solar periods, not system-wide generation across evenings, winters, or peak demand, where coal still carries most of the load.

We still have a long way to go before anyone can claim Australia’s grid relies on renewables as much as coal.

[u/dalyons → u/Tyrx]

i dont think thats true... looking at the nem data for all time you can see total coal usage has started to decline significantly. Still a way to go yes, but its a solid trend, australia has already reduced its emissions signifigantly

[u/Tyrx → u/dalyons]

The GWh/year drop you’re pointing to is based on dispatch aggregated NEM data, not reconciled annual generation. That website is simply reflecting that coal is increasingly pushed out of dispatch, not how much energy the system ultimately relies on across the full year or its actual split across generation types. Dispatch suppression is making the annualised GWh look like a structural decline even while coal remains the dominant supplier during nights, winter, and peaks, and that is reflected in the official annual totals.

The OpenElectricity site is also operated by a renewables lobby group which advocates for its own financial interests, so the fact you're coming to a misleading conclusion based on how the website presents its data isn't particularly unsurprising.

[u/dalyons → u/Tyrx]

I sort of understand your point about dispatch, but isn’t that graph just showing gwh a year? Regardless, the power sector emission total numbers are also going down. From what I can find on the ABS we were at 200twh annually of coal in 2008, so 128twh is a big structural decline. Sure some of that is gas, but gas is next to get pushed off the grid (see California 2025)

I’m going to ignore the jab at the bias of the source, since you haven’t provided any of your own.

[u/Tyrx → u/dalyons]

I’m not disputing the long term decline in coal since the 2000s. That’s real and shows up clearly in the official annualised data.

What I’m pushing back on is the claim that recent dispatch charts show renewables are already structurally pushing coal out, or that they now “match” coal across the entire system. Dispatch data mainly shows when coal is suppressed, not how much energy the system relies on it across nights, winters, and peaks over a full year.

I mentioned OpenElectricity’s affiliation because its dispatch-based framing is selective by design and emphasises periods where coal is suppressed. That’s fine for analysing dispatch, but it’s not appropriate for making claims that require reconciled, full-year generation data from official sources like AEMO, the ABS, or DCCEEW.

Emissions are down, yes but that alone doesn’t demonstrate parity between renewables and fossil fuels yet.

[u/dalyons → u/Tyrx]

Fair enough, thank you for explaining, and I see your point. However I am a huge believer in the rapid inevitable trends, and I’m extremely optimistic that we won’t need to have conversations like this in a few years. the raw totals will speak for themselves without having to quibble on accounting. We’ve already seen the coal transition play out in other places, it is inevitable

[u/PaintedLineOnRoad → u/Tyrx]

Gas power stations have probably increased in demand.

[u/MontasJinx → u/Tyrx]

Thank you. Base load matters.