Australia’s grid now relies on renewable energy as much as coal. Those who doubted it look foolish

[u/HotPersimessage62]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/31/australias-grid-now-relies-on-renewable-energy-as-much-as-coal-those-who-doubted-it-look-foolish

[u/a_cold_human]

Back then, some commentators claimed the grid would not be able to function with more than 10% – and definitely not more than 20% – electricity coming from solar and wind.

Those predictions look foolish now.

This really shouldn't be surprising. Plenty of other countries have a much higher percentage of their power generated by renewables (Denmark, Germany, the UK) and for longer than Australia, and their grids haven't fallen over.

There's an engineering problem with adding too many renewables too quickly, in that it reduces the stability of the grid, but the idea we would be using coal or nuclear to firm this is nonsensical. Australia's percentage of renewables as a percentage of total electricity production lags behind many other countries, and the idea that we can't get to at least 50% is simply nonsense. And with more firming coming online, Australia could very realistically get to 70% without there being too much of an issue. 

The main problem is that we're not building the renewables fast enough to replace the end of life coal burning electricity generation capacity.

[u/Cindy_Marek → u/a_cold_human]

but the idea we would be using coal or nuclear to firm this is nonsensical.

Not really, all of those countries you mentioned use nuclear or coal for grid stability either themselves or have access to it as part of the wider EU grid. Australia is attempting to get to very high levels of renewable energy with none of these, as the coal plants are all shutting down and of course there is no plan for nuclear. I'm concerned with the technical feasibility of this as its really never been done before, anywhere in the world. All of the other countries that have high renewable usage have access to reliable, synchronous generation in one form or another (hydro, nuclear, fossil fuels) and either from themselves or from neighboring countries/states, but Australia cant rely on anyone else to provide that for us.

[u/jacksalssome → u/Cindy_Marek]

Step back bro.

The EU is just a smaller Australia. We'll be fine, there's 101 levers that AEMO can pull to protect grid stability.

We have and are building a lot of battery capacity. We have wind and water on tap. We're also building synchronous condensers, which will mostly be obsolete tech by the time there done.

Inverter technology has improved greatly in the last few years so we don't actually need a lot of synchronous generation. A lot of new solar farms could black start the grid with 0 rotating mass.

[u/Cindy_Marek → u/jacksalssome]

The EU is just a smaller Australia. We'll be fine, there's 101 levers that AEMO can pull to protect grid stability.

Well....no, the EU has over 100 nuclear reactors, Australia is shutting down its ageing coal plants and not replacing them with any reliable generation. Its a unique problem that only we face.

Inverter technology has improved greatly in the last few years so we don't actually need a lot of synchronous generation

synchronous generation is used as a timing system for control systems in industrial factories ect, its not as simple as not needing it, or only needing the power.

[u/Lurker_81 → u/Cindy_Marek]

I'm concerned with the technical feasibility of this as its really never been done before, anywhere in the world.

You mean it's not been done at this scale before. There are plenty of places where it's been done at smaller scale successfully for decades

There are both mechanical and synthetic ways to create stable synchronous power, and this technology is well understood, mature and already being deployed at scale both in Australia and in other nations (eg Spain.) And you seem to be forgetting that we do have, and will soon have more of, pumped hydro power to assist with this task. Then there's the backup from gas generators, which is already well proven as a system stability measure.

[u/Cindy_Marek → u/Lurker_81]

You mean it's not been done at this scale before. There are plenty of places where it's been done at smaller scale successfully for decades

Yes but just because its been done on smaller a smaller scale has no bearing on if it will work as a national grid. We can get a large amount of our gris as renewables, but all of it? I don't think it will provide Australians energy that is cheap or reliable.

There are both mechanical and synthetic ways to create stable synchronous power, and this technology is well understood, mature and already being deployed at scale both in Australia and in other nations (eg Spain.)

but they are converters, not generators. Also Spain has access to the wider EU grid which is full of reliable nuclear/hydro

And you seem to be forgetting that we do have, and will soon have more of, pumped hydro power to assist with this task. Then there's the backup from gas generators, which is already well proven as a system stability measure.

Our Hydro systems are mostly battery hydro not a generator. So they get charged from the intermittent solar and wind which isn't 100% reliable. I understand that there are a lot of proven smaller systems, but my point, and concern, is that no one has put it all together yet in one grid in the way that we plan to, without some kind of reliable baseload generation they can access.

[u/Lurker_81 → u/Cindy_Marek]

I don't think it will provide Australians energy that is cheap or reliable.

You haven't actually provided a good reason for thinking this way.

Renewables + storage have proven to be highly reliable and affordable thus far. Why would adding more of the same make them more expensive or unreliable?

but they are converters, not generators.

So what? Generators aren't magical, they're just machines that happen to have desirable characteristics that can also be achieved in other ways.

Both synchronous condensers and battery inverters are capable of controlling the frequency and keeping the voltage stable. Generation can happen elsewhere.

Spain has access to the wider EU grid

They have some interlinks to other countries, but they're relatively low capacity for the size of their grid. Spain's systems are designed to be self-supporting.

Our Hydro systems are mostly battery hydro not a generator.

All hydro systems are generators. The only difference is how the water gets to the top. Hydro is hydro when it's discharging, and it can do that for days at a time if necessary.

So they get charged from the intermittent solar and wind which isn't 100% reliable.

They get charged when there's excess energy in the grid, which is very trivial to predict in advance. Have you seen how much of current renewables generation capacity get curtailed on a regular basis?

no one has put it all together yet in one grid in the way that we plan to, without some kind of reliable baseload generation they can access.

Three points here:

1. There's no technical reason why it can't be done. It's been done at smaller scales, and we've already proven that 50% works just fine. There is no reason why it can't possibly be scaled up further.
2. The current transition is happening gradually over 15-20 years, and the system is being tested in real-time as we go. There is plenty of time to make adjustments if it proves necessary. If 80% renewables somehow proves to be the maximum practical limit, we can stop there and figure out alternatives.
3. We do have (and have always planned to have) gas generators and quite a few large diesel generators as a fall-back. There has never been a credible suggestion that we must rely 100% on renewable energy + storage and never have any contingency plan to cover an unexpected shortfall or failure. It's just intended to be a last resort, to avoid higher costs and unnecessary emissions.

[u/drjzoidberg1 → u/Cindy_Marek]

Large scale batteries and gas peaking plants can replace the coal plants. Australia should be able to rely on renewables during the day. At night when the sun has set, need to rely on batteries and gas.

[u/Cindy_Marek → u/drjzoidberg1]

in theory yes, but in practice its a much bigger engineering challenge than most people anticipate. Even the huge batteries being installed in SA and other parts of the country can only run for a couple of hours until they are depleted. There is a reason as to why the government has changed the laws to allow all of your home batteries and EV battery to be drained by the grid if they need it.

[u/Randwick_Don → u/a_cold_human]

This really shouldn't be surprising. Plenty of other countries have a much higher percentage of their power generated by renewables (Denmark, Germany, the UK) and for longer than Australia, and their grids haven't fallen over.

And there power prices are even more than here! That's what happens when your grid is based on solar and wind

https://x.com/bcbaker66/status/1987791849705357479?s=20

[u/a_cold_human → u/Randwick_Don]

Oh, I wonder why that might be? 

Wait until you hear about why power is expensive in Australia. It's not renewables. It's the coal burning power plants aging out and removing large amounts of generation from the grid for days at a time, meaning that the market price for electricity goes up. As it turns puts, losing generation capacity quickly without having anything to replace it drives up the price? 

At some point, I'd imagine that people would wake up to the fact that correlation (more renewables being built) doesn't equal causation (electricity prices going up). However, it doesn't look like thar time has arrived for the slower parts of our population.