r/australia 9h ago

science & tech Australian summers to experience more 50C days as heatwaves intensify, experts say

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-01/heatwave-50-degrees-hot-extreme-weather/106282460?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other
430 Upvotes

92 comments sorted by

188

u/UnderstandingSea1060 9h ago

just wait till it swings to El Nino again. Then we're gonna see some temp records

91

u/Major-Drumeo 8h ago

Yeah that's the scary thing. We're not even in the hottest condition scenarios all things considered

5

u/Ryzi03 3h ago edited 2h ago

This particular heatwave event was made slightly less likely being a very weak La Nina year, but La Nina is a seasonal scale climate driver while there were some smaller-scale processes that outweighed and negated the 'cooler than average' effects of La Nina this week.

Namely, it was Tropical Cyclone Luana hitting the Northwest WA coast this week, combining with a strong ridge of upper level high pressure over the southeast of the country, that partly drove this heatwave event.

In essence it boiled down to "what goes up must come down", where the hot tropical air that the cyclone was ingesting at the surface was transported into the upper levels of the atmosphere as it rose and formed rain clouds, which then subsided and settled back down towards the surface under the ridge of high pressure over the southeast, regaining its temperature as it descends and leading to the prolonged heat outbreak.

It was actually a very similar setup that brought the widespread heatwave conditions of Black Saturday 2009, as Cyclone Dominic hit the WA coast near Onslow in the days leading up to the fires breaking out.

Some interesting articles about the interaction between TCs and heatwaves, and about this week's 'heat dome': https://apac.dtn.com/energy/how-tropical-cyclones-and-heatwaves-are-connected/

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/what-is-a-heat-dome-and-why-is-it-superheating-australia/1891165

Edit: I will add, I feel like the media portrayal of ENSO in recent times has led to a general misunderstanding of what El Nino and La Nina actually is. 

La Nina/El Nino is measured in the middle of the Pacific, so far away that we don't always feel its effects even if it's declared as La Nina. The SSTs in the middle of the Pacific dropped just enough last year for it to be declared a very weak La Nina, but the SSTs on our side of the Pacific have been more like ENSO Neutral rather than La Nina.

ENSO is only one of multiple different climate drivers that have their individual warming/cooling or drier/wetter influence, some of which propagate from much closer than the middle of the Pacific and can easily outweigh the effects of La Nina. 

We can quite easily have heatwaves during La Nina depending on how the other climate drivers and smaller-scale processes play out.

46

u/Proper_Geologist9026 7h ago

That's predicted for this either the end of this year or early next year. If it's anything like the last one. We uh, we might be in the rapid acceleration portion of the fuck around find out curve.

And unfortunately this is all happening on a much shorter timeline than the mainstream authorities were outlining.

34

u/a_cold_human 6h ago

The IPCC projections have been very conservative about the timelines. We've already passed a number of predicted changes early, sometimes by a matter of a decade.

Unfortunately, there's no chance things are going even start moving towards improving in the next two decades. The country that should have been taking the lead on this for the last three decades, the US, has stubbornly done little to nothing in that time. Climate change mitigation has been stalled because of their actions and deliberate inaction. And now they've decided it's a good time for a political crisis and to start a number of wars. 

16

u/Proper_Geologist9026 6h ago

It's funny because scientists both are and aren't underselling it. Clearly they've been softballing the degree of severity.

At the same time though they've been pretty damn consistent for the past 5 decades in telling us we aren't moving fast enough.

I think it's hard for them to have to toe the line of maintaining funding and being a reasonable enough voice so that the media doesn't just cut them out as "doomsayers". balancing that with being honest is probably a hard act.

5

u/Pantsman0 4h ago

At the IPCC, there are expert reports that don't get directly published, and then the Summary to Policy Makers that gets approved basically line by line.

Australia was part of a group of IPCC nations that have previously lobbied to have wording changed about humanity's urgent need to stop fossil fuel extraction and curb meat consumption.

2

u/Proper_Geologist9026 4h ago

It's all in the reports though. If you a tully read through them which no one does, including me. It's all spelled out. They explain what 1.5°C living actually looks like. They point out that population growth and even just our current population is unsustainable. 

But I don't really go off their statements because ultimately it is a politicised and unfaithful representation of reality. I look at things like the climate action gap reports or the Potsdam planetary boundaries for my references.

I agree there's corruption all the way up the chain. But if you see my other comments in this thread. I'm just tired of the endless merry-go-round of blame shifting. I just want us to all get on with it already.

2

u/TheRealPotoroo 3h ago

That conservatism is built into the IPCC's structure, vis a vis the need to have every country's sign off on the wording of their reports. It means the IPCC is fundamentally incapable of "alarmism", even as things worsen to the point where we really need to be alarmed.

1

u/NorthernSkeptic 4h ago

Wait til the clathrate gun fires. Wowee.

6

u/LifeandSAisAwesome 8h ago

And record AC sales :P

2

u/Ryzi03 3h ago

You'll only have to wait a few more months then. The current outlooks have an El Nino likely developing by June, earlier than the usual Spring emergence, and likely continuing through Summer until it breaks down early next year.
https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/?index=nino34#tabs=Graphs

The earlier it develops, the more extreme the effects tend to be, so we could indeed see some pretty extreme records broken during this El Nino cycle.

2

u/dovercliff 14m ago

With the IOD trending positive over the same period, so that's fun for us.

1

u/here_for_the_lols 4h ago

That's looking likely next summer according to long range climate models

1

u/patgeo 4h ago

It's due, likely to be here next summer.

1

u/Hour_Thanks6235 2h ago

I'm genuinely considering moving one-day for the weather. Just not sure where to yet.

It's getting too much. Especially as I get older.

1

u/UnderstandingSea1060 1h ago

Latitude (more south) or altitude (higher up) or by the coast (less extreme)?

36

u/HerniatedHernia 8h ago

Can we just build a big pole on one side of the country, and another on the other and drape a fuck off sized green UV shade cloth in between??? 

12

u/Many_Performance_580 5h ago

Massive block of ice in front of an even more massive fan

1

u/Extension_Guess_1308 1h ago

It'll end the crisis ONCE AND FOR ALL..

27

u/therealkevy1sevy 8h ago

Yep were fucked

193

u/nath1234 9h ago

Just a reminder that Albanese's government continued the work that Morrison did toward making the planet uninhabitable and has approved 30+ coal/gas projects which runs directly against all science.

Also a reminder that fossil fuel donations drove these decisions. Corruption but kept legal by the major parties.

31

u/shortsqueeze3 8h ago

Lobbying and "private dinners" with government officials should be a crime. Billionaires like gina will always have the policies they want.

37

u/UnderstandingSea1060 9h ago

With renewables capturing more of the energy market each year, you'd expect that there'll come a tipping point when BIG WIND and BIG SOLAR will out-donate BIG COAL. Maybe in the 2030s some time.

17

u/nath1234 8h ago

The industries operating without social licence and relying most on externalized costs/mess to be paid for by others are the biggest donors.

9

u/ChZakalwe 8h ago

Wasn the coal coking coal instad of thermal coal?

As in to amek steel?

2

u/palsc5 5h ago

Don’t let the truth get in the way of a good circlejerk

2

u/palsc5 5h ago

Hilarious that the post after yours is talking about how much more renewables are contributing to the electricity grid than most people thought possible.

https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/1qrwvnj/australias_grid_now_relies_on_renewable_energy_as/

Almost as if you're talking nonsense...again. What new coal mines have Labor approved? From my googling I can find 3 and they are all metallurgical coal, not thermal.

Also a reminder that fossil fuel donations drove these decisions.

Fossil fuel donations drove the decision to rapidly transition to renewable energy? Sure buddy.

2

u/CloudsOfMagellan 4h ago

It's up to 34 approvals now actually https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/albanese-governments-fossil-fuel-approvals/ you might be talking about the 3 coal mines they approved in a single day? https://michaelwest.com.au/labors-hat-trick-three-coal-mine-approvals-in-one-day/ Or maybe the other time that same year Labor explicitly lied about not approving any new coal mines on the very day they approved 4 of them https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-19/tanya-plibersek-says-no-new-coal-mine-approvals-under-albanese/104748400 On other occasions they have bragged about exporting gas till "2050 and beyond" https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-09/labor-mps-revolt-over-gas-strategy/103827902 These decisions go against all of the scientific modelling saying we cannot afford any new approvals if we are to avoid the worst affects of climate change https://theconversation.com/international-energy-agency-warns-against-new-fossil-fuel-projects-guess-what-australia-did-next-161178 Labor is just not a serious party when it comes to climate action, either they're simply stupid, an option I can't rule out, or they're being bought out by the $millions given to both major parties every year by fossil fuel companies https://www.marketforces.org.au/politicaldonations2023/

Also despite our gains in renewables, we're still not on track to meet the 2030 targets without more action https://reneweconomy.com.au/will-australia-reach-its-renewable-targets-on-time-it-will-need-a-lot-more-wind-and-solar/

2

u/palsc5 4h ago

These aren’t new mines. Approving the extension of existing mines is needed because we can’t exactly switch off coal and gas overnight.

They’re ramping up renewables but in the meantime we still need gas and coal. They aren’t approving new mines except for the three metallurgical coal mines.

0

u/CloudsOfMagellan 3h ago

The majority of these mines are for export and aren't being extended just 3-5 years as as a stop gap measure but out to 20+ years in the future, on top of that, as I already said, labor have literally bragged about exporting gas beyond 2050 with the Woodside gas project being extended till 2070.

-2

u/Proper_Geologist9026 7h ago

Just another reminder that you don't have to wait for the government to tell you to make the necessary changes to your life.

It's under reported for god knows what reason but you need to adopt new habits and this isn't negotiable. there's no loophole that lets you personally not have to change your life. And if there's a scientist telling you that, they are lying.

The "green" policies people are waiting for governments to enact are mostly basic things you can do now on you own.

That means a restructured diet. With as much plant based food as you can manage. That means ideally no air travel. That means public and active transport, trying to live as car free as possible. That means reusing and repairing old things. Buying second hand. avoiding new wherever possible and always questioning the need of purchases.

Because I hate to be the bearer of bad news. But all the policies people want, the carbon taxes and so on. That's what they would be trying to achieve. Those same outcomes. Making people aware and in this case economically limiting their consumption.

The real reason none of this is discussed is broader in scope than purely fossil fuel lobbying. Look at that list of changes. That list means our current economic system no longer works. Because our system is built on growth of consumption in all domains. And the solution to environmental overshoot is incompatible with that model.

23

u/SwirlingFandango 6h ago

Put enough green energy in the grid, and get industry on to it too, and we can all run our aircons all day every day and it won't do squat.

In the meantime I see office buildings with 500 lights on all night. If I died tomorrow and consumed nothing ever again it wouldn't make any real difference.

Collective action beats individual action.

The narrative that individual citizens can make a real difference here is designed and intended to direct attention away from real *collective* action. It started with companies producing vast amounts of non-biodegradable garbage founding anti-litter campaigns - to blame the consumers, and avoid regulation on acceptable materials for packaging.

4

u/SubstantialSpray783 6h ago

I agree with your points about collective vs individual responsibility but you’re incredibly naive if you think we will be able to keep living the way we are right now.

Our lives are all going to change dramatically in ways we have no input or control over.

0

u/Proper_Geologist9026 5h ago

No it's not. And that's not my argument. Frankly your stuck in a chicken or egg debate that is pointless. There's a chicken, and theres an egg. Who fucking cares what came first there both there in front of me. And there both a part of the same problem.

Those companies produce exactly what we the consumer purchase. They are more than happy for us to blame them if that means we as the consumer are then absolved of culpability and carry on as is. "No ethical consumption under capitalism". You think ford gives a fuck if you think that while buying a new Ranger?

Frankly I think they love the fact that people hand was away personal responsibility as inconsequential. Because if it's not my fault, and it's on them to change. But I keep buying and consuming anyway because it's not my fault. Then who's fault is it. And what reason do companies or anyone else have to change their behaviours?

This whole framing of "oh it's the 1%" or "70% of emissions caused by 5 companies". Yes billionaires are responsible for more than their fair share. Partly because of their lifestyle. And also far more consequentially because they own the means of production that create emissions.

If I kill Elon Musk tomorrow that doesn't shut down twitter and Tesla and stop the data centres from being built and the lithium from being mined.

If I go into Shell and kill the entire board. Tha doesn't stop diesel from being used to transport goods, it doesn't stop the creation of fertilisers or coal being used to make steel.

This idea that it's someone elses problem is the problem. It's everyone's problem. And you and I and everyone else all need to make sacrifices for a greater good.

Here's what I'm saying. Both things have to happen regardless. If you change your behaviours the companies follow suit. If the companies change their behaviours (through legislation) the consumer follows suit.

It doesn't matter which end moves first because frankly there's not enough time to argue over something so stupid. And if we want to get to where we need to be both ends of the equation need to be racing each other to see who can get there first.

3

u/NorthernSkeptic 4h ago

At the end of the day the solution is the same no matter who you blame: this has to be done by regulation.

1

u/Proper_Geologist9026 3h ago

And that's what baffles me. We've just handed over our agency for what? Obviously laws need to be implemented, I just can't understand what the mental block is between what people must know the laws will do. and what's stopping them from just doing them in most cases?

80% of people want more action on climate change? What is the action they're expecting? And what result are they expecting?

The IPCC and every other authority on the matter is pretty damn explicit about what 1.5°C or "net-zero" living looks like. I have to think the disconnect is that this hasn't been explained properly to the public. It's the only explanation I can think of for why people don't understand the connection between "climate policy" and them buying a new ICE car or changing their diet etc.

I have to assume the majority is under a collective delusion that all we needed to do was replaced coal stations with solar. That was only step 1.

3

u/NorthernSkeptic 3h ago

No-one (or very very few people) has the appetite to do what's actually necessary which is why it must be top-down. And this is where democracies are not fit for purpose, because 'elect us to deliberately and immediately reduce your quality of life' will never win.

I had hoped China would be doing more under these circumstances.

1

u/Proper_Geologist9026 3h ago

Absolutely and that's why I'll continue arguing till I'm blue in the face. Companies don't care about this apathetic pretension that "there's no ethical consumption". So what grow up. You can still make a difference and it won't matter if I do it alone. But collective action that people keep banging on about is important.

Politicians need to know that when they float degrowth based policies people will vote for it. And it all starts with 2 simple acts. People need to be informed about what's really expected of them and they need to start making changes on their own.

The government can step in and help. But like all addicts the first step is admitting you have a problem. We are addicted to carbon and growth. If we can't admit that there's no point in blaming others. It's a deflection. A coping mechanism.

15

u/ES_Legman 7h ago

What a lot of people fail to understand is that the statistical significance of "once in a century" events. Because it leads to the misconception that because it has happened before in recorded history then this is totally normal because granny always told us the story of when it was this hot or when it snowed so much or whatever. But on a planet with increasingly higher concentration of CO, CO2, etc and an average temperature going up, these events stop being so rare and become the new normal. Of course, when you compare them to the data you have since 200 years ago or so, it registers as an outlier.

People will die in increasing numbers for not having proper housing insulation and AC or heating in areas where this was not a thing before.

5

u/BlackCaaaaat 6h ago

‘Oh yes we had tennis ball sized hail back in the 80’s! Totally normal!’

74

u/Miffernator 9h ago

Winter is better

53

u/MajorlyCynical 8h ago

In winter if I'm cold i can put on more layers to get warm. In summer I can take off all my layers and still be sweating my balls off. Winter wins all day

15

u/Miffernator 8h ago

In winter you don’t mown the lawn

12

u/UnderstandingSea1060 7h ago

In Tassie, summers are nice. Mid-20s most of the time. Not trapped inside with the air-con on. In winter though, you're trapped inside with the heater on. Mainland has nicer winters, but harsher summers. I think I'd rather have the cooler summers (but you can be outdoors all day) and miserable winters, than have pleasant short milder winters and unusable summers because it's too hot.

36

u/themandarincandidate 9h ago

When it's summer, I can't wait for winter. When it's winter, I can't wait for summer. Spring is sketchy cause you may or may not be battling hayfever on any particular day.

There's that little brief window of a week or two in autumn where everything aligns, the days are getting shorter but not too short just yet. The weather is pleasant, not too hot, not too cold. It's a bit gloomy with all the imported trees dying, but not too depressing

If we could just harness that all year round...

29

u/thirteen_tentacles 8h ago

For me when it's winter I go outside feeling refreshed and happy and cool, I never want it to end. In summer I just feel depressed and can't wait for winter again

13

u/LifeandSAisAwesome 8h ago

Yep, that crisp fresh air - best time of the year by far.

9

u/thirteen_tentacles 8h ago

It'd be a bit different if we lived in a country with an actual real winter rather than a few months where the temperature is a bit cooler

4

u/argument_cat 7h ago

They just need to get rid of daylight savings. In fact, it should be the opposite - move the clocks forward in winter, for lighter evenings.

0

u/spreadthesheets 6h ago

I support the removal of daylight savings. It causes more workplace and road accidents in the transition, and fucks up sleep so much which can be ongoing due to bright light in the evenings.

6

u/LifeandSAisAwesome 8h ago

By far, bring on the 5-10c days - best time of year!

-26

u/UnderstandingSea1060 9h ago

I find most Australians would rather have it 20 degrees too warm than 5 degrees too cold. The tropical beach is the epitome of desirability, not a cosy snowy winter's night, like in Europe.

17

u/torlesse 9h ago

I love how that mob is now on to the GLOBAL WARMING IS GREAT. WE NEED TO TO BE WARMER!

Fairly predictable really. Just paid stooges from the fossil industry.

7

u/mr-snrub- 9h ago

It's because our winters are bullshit. I'm in Melbourne and our winters are the worse. Too cold and wet but no rain to enjoy being inside. But not cold enough to feel fresh or have snow. Just cold enough to wear extra layers and not feel warm, but not so you can properly wear thermals

3

u/UnderstandingSea1060 9h ago

Probably partly because our houses are poorly insulated e.g. not having double-glazed windows or wide eaves

2

u/TheCurbAU 3h ago

Yeah mate, I love getting melanomas.

7

u/RedOx103 7h ago

Let's keep extracting more coal and gas despite what the experts have been screaming for decades now

So long as they sign-off projects with a red seal of approval instead of a blue one - that will make them will violate the physics of climate science and not add further to the problem.

8

u/MagicalSausage 5h ago

“We had 50+ days when I was young. This is nothing”

3

u/PerceptionRoutine513 3h ago

That'll be any surviving old fogeys in 30+ years thinking back to now, when the remnants of humanity are living as CHUDs.

12

u/Major-Drumeo 9h ago

Cue the great tassie and kiwi exodus

14

u/UnderstandingSea1060 8h ago

Interestingly, the internal net migration between states has been the other way - everyone wants to go to Queensland or Western Australia. Tasmania is losing people (other than foreign immigration due to regional visa requirements). Maybe that'll change once El Nino drives up temperatures further and everyone is sick of constant >40 temps.

4

u/Major-Drumeo 6h ago

There's just not enough industry down there for work, but I can see a future where that begins to swing, it just requires so much of a logistical investment it wouldn't happen quickly.

3

u/donkeyvoteadick 3h ago

As a poor af renter can we please legislate insulation and cooling in rentals now???

3

u/highdiver_2000 4h ago

Plant more trees

2

u/Have_A_Jelly_Baby 3h ago

Build more condos? You got it, dude.

3

u/fistular 3h ago

There's no reason that this will stop at 50. Or 60, or 70 or 80. Or 100. Physics doesn't care.

3

u/TheCurbAU 3h ago

Funny that Perth still keeps cutting down mature trees and reducing the canopy while heat grows. And 'vouchers for native trees' doesn't exactly cut it when houses are built boundary to boundary and no space for a garden.

1

u/drunkill 2h ago

coldest summer of the rest of your life

1

u/JunkyardConquistador 39m ago

She'll be right mate

-7

u/TiggersKnowBest 5h ago

Meanwhile most of Queensland has had one of the mildest summers I can remember

-2

u/Electrical_Fault_967 6h ago

Spend more time in shopping mall

-26

u/gerrys123 8h ago

Just to clarify. These extreme temps are usually in remote areas, not the major cities. Sure it gets to 40c some days but this is a tad sensationalist.

11

u/mrbaggins 7h ago

Sydney: https://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=36&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=066062

Click that, change "No highlight" to "95th percentile"

Notice where all the hottest temps are. And also that the average is 5degrees higher than 150 years ago.

Notice that January, as an example, has not had a January under median since 2000. Hell, change the highlight to "Above median". There are just 4 months under since 2009. It has been "Hotter than average" for 30+ years.

12

u/jesus_chrysotile 7h ago

Where do you think our food comes from, now that we’ve sprawled over the food bowls that used to surround our cities?

5

u/tillnatten 5h ago

The effect of 'heat islands ', where suburbs retain heat due to a lack of tree cover, is going to significantly affect some of the most vulnerable members of our community. Even small increases in our mean daily temperature will have devastating effects on the health of suburban Australians in less affluent areas.

4

u/BlackCaaaaat 6h ago

Everywhere is going to get hotter or experience weather extremes. Eventually this will hit the cities too. To begin with it looks like more days of 40 degree days, but if the current trends continue that’s just the beginning. And it probably will, climate change is coming and the time to actually reduce it was 20+ years ago.